approximately 80 days before the German elections, it is now finally time for our study on 30 days of German politics in Social Media. Our first study will provide information as by whom and how political parties and politicians are perceived in social networks, blogs and newsfeeds.
We give answers to questions, for example, who are the most influencing persons and websites, how often do people talk about whom, what age structure are prevalent at the relevant parties and who has the highest women's and men's rates.
A comparison of soccer is very interesting: Who would have thought that Mario Gomez with approximately 1.3 million fans has over 4 times as many fans as Angela Merkel has?
But lets look at the genuine political figures from June 2013 in a short overview:
Under the overall political consideration, we understand the conversations on the following parties and these personalities: Hubert Aiwanger, Holger Apfel, Rainer Brüderle, Katja Kippling, Angela Merkel, Cem Özdemir, Bernd Schloemer, Horst Seehofer, and Peer Steinbrück.
The sentiment was automatically detected by our system. Should this turn out to be too positive or too negative, it affects all people equally. It is also not shown the general sentimtent on a person or party , but the sentiment of the groups that deal with the particular party or person. NPD supporters like to see their party positive for the rest of the world, this is not necessarily true.
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1. Overall political situation in June
Here the situation is shown in June across all persons and parties:
- Thematically parties are moving into the background, while personalities are getting more important in the elections campaings. Best example is CDU with Angela Merkel.
- With a score of 100 Angela Merkel is the most influencing person in the online political environment. She is followed by Piraten party due to their high value of posts. Then comes SPD and Peer Steinbrück. FDP is beaten by Bündnis 90 / The Greens.
- The percentage of women is with 32.4%lower than the average population. This may be due to lower online affinity or less political interest.
- The general opinion about political personalities is influenced more negatively by 10% positive to 50% negative posts.
- The age structure shows that online politics most likely reached the group of 25-64 year-old-ones.
- Politically are the Chancellor, federal elections, Prime Ministers and the coalition in the foreground. Furthermore, the CDU and the CSU, the Greens, the Left Party and the FDP. Smaller parties are lost in the perception.
- Overall political subjects, it's about Germany, Europe and millions and billions of Euros. The flood catastrophy already disappears from the subjects.
2. 30 days the CDU in June
So it was in June at the CDU:
- The CDU is very well represented with 24.6% of posts in social networks. Together with its Bavarian sister party, the CDU reached the top spot with 36.6%.
- Angela Merkel is 55.9% of all posts to leading politicians also lonely peak.
- Most Influential site for the CDU is ahead of the party's own website, the website of Angela Merkel. Whereby the Piraten party and the Electoral Alternative for 2013 (AFD) speaks much about the CDU, too.
- The percentage of women is 28.8%, while the CDU is among young voters under 35 years of age with 27% on average in the major parties. Also over 55 + the CDU is well represented.
- The opinion position to Angela Merkel is with 7.0% positive to 48.5% negative Posts common for a people's party.
- Political topics, of course, are also the Chancellor, the next federal elections and the federal government in the foreground. Following are also set to deal with: the CSU, the Greens, the FDP and the Linke.
- Common CDU subjects are the flood catastrophy, further Europe, and finally spending millions and billions.
3. 30 days the SPD in June
So it was in June at the SPD:
- After all 27% of all posts fall on the SPD and more impressive 27% of all posts to political leaders relate Peer Steinbrueck. This is to have a very good result without having own Chancellor channels on Youtube. The SPD is and hopefully will always stay a people's party.
- Most influencing media channels are the party's own websites before the websites of Peer Steinbrueck followed by Sigmar Gabriel. Furthermore the broadcaster RTL matters SPD politics and of course the AFD.
- In the SPD only 30% are under 35, while it gets going with beginning the profissional life at age of 25 and above. At 55 +, the SPD is represented only rather weakly with 12%. Apparently a drift took place here. But not to the Greens, rather to the left, the Pirates or the AFD.
- The percentage of women is as usual in political parties below 30%.
- The sentiment to Peer Steinbrueck is at 11.5% positive to 51.1% negative posts good overall, but polarizing.
- Politically, of course, the elections and their own candidate for chancellor are in the foreground, but also a certain mayor, who could live in Berlin.
- Thematically the flood catastrophy is also not subject to the SPD, but it goes in spendings by billions. Europe also remains unmentioned.The political debate is also about almost all parties and possible coalitions.
4. 30 days the Greens in June
So it was in June at the Greens:
- With 9.3% of all posts reach the Greens almost the result of the CSU. Cem Özdemir affect 2.5% of all posts to political personalities. Comparing these values with other parties, the Greens are to be classified as a smaller party.
- Influential website are the party's own channels before Cem Özdemir. Angela Merkel and potential coalition partners are less relevant. Of course the AFD is talking about The Greens, too.
- After all over 33% are under 35 years old, whereas the Greens are represented at age of 55 + with only 6.2% and not at all from 65 on.
- The percentage of women is quite high with 31.7%.
- The mood to Cem Özdemir is with 9.5% positive to 48.1% negative posts quite well. This is usually the case with smaller parties, but these also have a lower women quta. Who knows what effect this can have...
- Politically, the general elections, the party itself, coalitions and the Linke are in the foreground. In personJürgen Trittin generated more resonance than Cem Özdemir.
- Thematically, the flood catastrophy is not subject of The Greens either. So aren't millions and billions of Euros. But therefore European politics.
- Remarkable 14.65% of all posts count on the FDP. Significantly more than the Greens have. Rainer Brüderle concern nevertheless still 3.45% of all posts to political personalities. Thus the FDP is still the third largest party in Germany.
- Most Influencing channels are the party's own Social Media websites followed by their political competitors (in the first place the AFD of course). Neither Rainer Brüderle nor Philipp Roesler are represented here. Topics therefore are more in focus than people.
- At least 35.1% are under 35, even the youth under 18 years is intersted in the FDP. At age of 55+ the FDP has a much better position than the Greens. This would spek for a coalition with the FDP seen from a CDU perspective.
- The percentage of women is below avarage with 23.2%. The sentiment to Rainer Brüderle is with 15.7% positive to only 31.7% negative posts lonely Top Class. Probably the identification with Mr. Brüderle is quite high among fellow males.
- Politically, are as expected the general elections, the Chancellor and the coalition in the foreground. As for the Greens, the leaders and the own party is not an issue. FDP floks do not talk much about the Greens or the Linke either.
- Thematically the flood catastrophy is not subject of the FDP, too. But Europe and once again spending millions and billions of Euros.
6. 30 days the Linke in June
So it was in June at the Linke:
- 11.02% off all posts count on the Linke, who outruns the Greens by 2%. The numbers of Katja Kipping are comparable to the Greens, too: she comes to 2.50% of all posts to political personalities.
- Influential channels are the party's owned media ahead of Gregor Gysi and Katja Kipping. Sarah Wagenknecht and Oskar Lafontaine are out of the race. In the AFD, the Linke is probably not perceived. Both parties ignore each other in Social Media.
- Only 22% of the posts are from under 35-year-old. At age 55 + the party is well represented with 20.5%. In retirement age the Linke reaches the highest rate of interest with 8%.
- The proportion of women is also below average with 27.6%.
- The sentiment to Katja Kipping is at 5.4% positive to 22.8% negative posts Posts fairly neutral. It is striking that the negative posts abruptly decrease when you are not in the firing line of the AFD.
- Political issues are primarily about the party and prominent figures from their own ranks. Furthermore, the Linke is interested in the four largest parties. Foreign affairs are not a matter of the Linke at the moment.
- The flood catastrophy is not an issue, nor is spending billions. Political matters are displaced by intra-party issues.
7. 30 days the Piraten in June
So it was in June at the Piraten:
- Impressive 15.5% of all posts count on the young pirate party. It is significantly higher than the CSU and leaves all parties behind except the CDU. However, Bernd Schloemer affect only 1.90% of all posts to political personalities. The lowest percentage so far.
- Influential channels are the party's owned media before the websites of Anonymous and The Banana Republic. However, the Pirates Board is not considered. For this, the comedian Martin Sonneborn is well received. Perhaps a suitable candidate?
- 30.3% of all pirates are under 35, which is not surprising. At age 55 + the pirates are only minimally represented with 3%.
- Female Pirates are with only 17.8% a record low.
- For this, the sentiment with 15.6% positive to 56.6% negative posts is marked pub like: ordered protest.
- The small influence of the AFD to the pirate supports the theory that a high male ratio leads to less negative posts. This is only a superficial observation, of course.
- Political issues are federal elections, the Chancellor and almost all parties. As with the Greens the leaders are not a big theme.
- Thematically the Internet and democracy are additionally to the general elections in the foreground. It's about NSA, the Internet, human rights, media, democracy and freedom instead of flood and expenditures in millions or billions.
8. 30 days the Wahlalternative (AFD) in June
So it was in June at the AFD:
- With 0.6% counts the AFD has the fewest posts, but at least they are on the rise. Bernd Lucke also affect only 2.30% of the posts about political personalities.
- Influential channels are the party's owned media before more or less unprofessional tweets and Facebook pages. Bernd Lucke does not appear here.
- On the age structure of the AFD our system is currently still working.
- Female Alternatives are below average with a rate of 24.5%. It's comparable to the FDP women quota.
- The sentiment on Bernd Lucke is predominantly negative with 7.6% positive to 56.7% negative posts. The headwind from other parties seems to be predominatiing.
- Politically, the parliamentary elections and the parliament are mentioned in passing, while Bernd Lucke and the AFD are very relevant. The AFD obviously doesn't expect a participation in the government realistically.
- Political AFD subjects are Germany, the ESM, ECB, money, Greece, crisis and democracy. In addition to the self-discovery the AFD has an absolute financial focus.
9. 30 days NPD in June
So it was in June at the NPD:
- With a downward trend, the NPD comes to 2.26% of all posts. Higher resonance produced Holger Apfel with 3.69% of all posts to political leaders with a rising trend.
- The influencers are dominated by foreign sources as News and other parties. Own Influential channels are the parties own Social Media websites before Holger Apfel. "Being German is not a crime" also seems very popular. Whether our BND already knows about this? Best they ask NSA. In our eyes this shows that NPD is not very influencing in Germany.
- 21.1% is the percentage of women in the NPD topic. With nearly 89% the majority of the NPD interested is under 54.
- The sentiment on Holger Apfel is divided: 16.4% positive posts opposite 55.1% negative. In absolute terms, Holger Apfel got the most positive posts of all politicians, we looked at. This should make us think about it. The NPD is a well organized closed community.
- Politically is to find little in the NPD, only the Left and the CDU occur on the edge. Thematically, the NPD deals primarily with the right-wing scene: Neo-Nazi, Mundlos, Attorney, etc.
- Politics are probably not the strength of the NPD, at least not in the public perception. For this, it provides a distribution of right-wing views.
10. 30 days CSU in June
The CSU should not be missed as a sister party of CDU. As it looked in June:
- The CSU comes up to 11.9% of all posts. Horst Seehofer, after all, affect more than 7.6% of all posts about political personalities. In comparison, the leaders of FDP, The Greens and the Left parties appear as marginal.
- Influential websites even before the party-owned media are Angela Merkel and the SPD. After all, it creates the CSU website before the media of the sister party. Her sister inspires the CSU so downright. The CSU is also subject to the alternative choice. After all, the CSU website is still in front of their sister party's media. Her sister inspires the CSU so downright. The CSU is also subject to the AFD.
- The CSU appeals to older clientele: only 16% are under age of 35, 32.8% are over 55.
- The percentage of women of the CSU is with 26% lower than in the CDU.
- The sentiment on Horst Seehofer is with 7.9% positive to 41.5% negative posts in the upper midrange.
- Politically the great sister party's Mother Merkel is most dominant, but also Bavaria's Prime Minister and the Minister for Internal Affairs come to course. Furthermore, the Greens and the FDP are addressed, the Linke is not.
- Thematically, it's more about Germany, not Europe. And again: millions and billions of Euros.
11. 30 days Freie Wähler in June
So it was in June at the Freie Wähler:
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- Only 1.68% of all posts remain for the Freie Wähler of Bavaria. Hubert Aiwanger reached at least 3.42% of all posts about political personalities. Compared to other small parties this is a remarkable good value.
- Influential channels are Angela Merkel, followed by CSU, the Pirates and the CDU. Only then the party's own media come to fruition. Hubert Aiwanger is not present. Here the party can still catch up.
- WIth 24.7% the propotion of female "Free Voters" is in the lower range.
- The sentiment on Hubert Aiwanger is with 13.0% positive to 52.9% negative posts polarizing.
- Political issues are mostly concerning Bavarian matters as the Landtag or the CSU. further the Bavarian Prime Minister and the Greens are mentioned.
- Thematical subjects are of reginal nature, too. Gustl Mollath, the flood catastrophy, Munich and the Maximilianeum are interesting for the Free Voters. What is going on with the Netherlands and the integration rate is worth more investigation.
Women's Party of the Month are the Greens, followed by CDU. Men's Party of the Month are the Pirates, pursued by the young followers of the NPD. Leaders at 55 + is the CSU before the Linke.
Would the range in social media decide the general elections, we'd have the following result:
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