Mittwoch, 21. August 2013

30 days German politics in social media from July 2013

Hello dear visitors and readers, 

In July, we looked at the development of the overall political situation and the individual parties. Regarding contemporary issues, we will take a look at the NSA scandal, as well as Edward Snowden and the Euro Hawk, since these topics were widespread in the general media. Last but not least, we wanted to know how Thomas Oppermann does compared to government spokesman Steffen Seibert.

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Here we present our data of July 2013:

1. Overall political situation in July

  • The subject of politics gains more and more momentum, compared with June we have an increase of 30%.
  • The gender distribution and age structure have remained about the same.
  • In July King Football (Soccer) got into the act and vigorously added to ensure a positive mood towards the Chancellor. The posting of the DFB's Congratulations to the Chancellor reached over 17,000 people and led to more than 16,000 "likes".
  • Issue-related are election as well as the NSA affair and the coherent obfuscation by our government still in the foreground. This also accounts for the negative peak on 19.07.
  • Regarding the political parties the AfD is steeply on the rise, now that their party is officially recognized.

2. 31 days CDU in Social Media

  • Both Angela Merkel, as well as the CDU are thematically on the rise, with the party catching up compared to the previous month, regarding the young population layer.     
  • In order to see the mood of the population towards Angela Merkel, the drone affair, NSA and Edward Snowden we have excluded the official Facebook and Twitter pages of CDU and Angela Merkel.     
  • The negative sentiment prevails in all queries regarding NSA and Edward Snowden issues, the proportion of negative posts is 5 times higher than the positive posts. In this context, the critical post of Konstantin Wecker has the highest reach and agreement.     
  • Mentioning Angela Merkel the sarcastic post of Kanaxmodus has had the longest range.     
  • On issues and trends, the party's social media channels have been considered. Neither drone affair, or even NSA and Edward Snowden can be found here. Seems as they probably do not like talking about it.

3. 31 days CSU in Social Media

  • The CSU could expand even more than their sister party, while Horst Seehofer appeared less.     
  • The positive mood towards the party and Horst Seehofer is strongly influenced by the Birthday congratulations for Angela Merkel.     
  • Outside their own media this event is hardly covered as the polling shows about Horst Seehofer.     
  • Related to the FC Bayern charity match for flood victims, Horst Seehofer suffered a large spread.     
  • Just how much the NSA scandal is affecting the CSU is shown by the influence of satirical pages: Dieter Nuhr is still ahead of the CSU, followed by a post of "Der Postilion" about the NSA and Interior Minister Friedrich.     
  • The negative opinions about the NSA, Edward Snowden and the drone affairs also outbalance other topics in the CSU media presence.

4. 31 days SPD in Social Media 

  • In the SPD, Peer Steinbrück lags behind the development of their own party. Not only are there fewer conversations about him. The Facebook page of Peer Steinbrueck as his strongest medium also stays behind an interview with Julian Probst.
  • The negative opinions to NSA and Edward Snowden is direct criticism of government policy, and it has broad support in the public.
  • On the issues of drone affair, Edward Snowden and NSA, 1.8% positive posts stand against 15.4% negative.
  • The AfD's demand for the abolition of the solidarity surcharge with the widest support, is criticism which has a negative impact on the SPD.
  • In the "BILD" Wowereit's press of criminal charges against Bushido was positivly accepted as main topic, followed by interviews about the spy affair. The withdrawal of Mr. Platzeck was hardly relevant for BILD's readers.

5. 31 days "Die Grünen" in Social Media

  • Also in relation to "die Grünen" the "voting alternative in 2013 (AfD)" is very influential with their scolding.
  • Most influential supporter of the Greens is Konstantin Wecker and his government criticism in terms of Edward Snowden.
  • The Greens also don't hold back on government criticism. In particular, Edward Snowden and NSA are heavily criticized subjects with less than 1% positive posts.
  • This month we had a closer look ad Jürgen Trittin instead of Cem Özdemir. Regarding his reach he was up in July by 91% compared to June. Compared to Cem Özdemir, Jürgen Trittin also got further within the mood-pollings: Trittin achieved 15.9% positive against 26.8% negative posts, Cem Özdemir, only 12.1% positive to 34.4% negative.
  • The post of Konstantin Wecker, which provides for negative impact on the CDU, has a corresponding positive effect for "die Grünen".

6. 31 days FDP in Social Media

  • For the FDP, instead of looking on Rainer Brüderle stats again this month we checked the numbers for Philipp Rösler.
  • Rainer Brüderle takes a fall in the positive perception with 10.6% positive to 26.3% negative posts and is polarized a little more than Philipp Roesler with 8.3% positive to 18.6% negative posts.
  • In the news (Tagesschau), the FDP reached the greatest spread by calling for the abolition of the solidarity tax just as the AfD.
  • With only one critical post Sigmar Gabriel is ranked at 5th of the most influential topics regarding the FDP. The "Piraten" have beenn much more aggressive with 44 posts. The Pirates stimuli were Edward Snowden and the NSA.
  • Regarding NSA, Edward Snowden and the drone affair the consensus in the FDPs media performance does not hold back with criticism. However, the mood with 3.8% positive to 15.5% negative posts is not as negative as in the opposition parties.

7. 31 days "Die Linke" (political left) in the Social Media

  • The conversations about "Die Linke" declined compared to the previous month, yet worth mentioning is, with the NSA affair, there is more political discussion aside of the parties own agenda.
  • Katja Kipping asserts her influence over other party members as the most influential aside of the parties media pages.
  • Richest impact statement by Katja Kipping was criticism of the obfuscation of the government in terms of NSA affair.
  • After that, the Left expresses solidarity against the possible probation for Uli Hoeness.
  • Among the topics NSA, Edward Snowden and drones affair the opinion with the "Linke" is also extremely critical with 2.3% positive to 24.1% negative messages.
  • On these topics the entire opposition fires successfully against the government and Angela Merkel.
  • We are excited to see how the long memory of social networks will affect the election results.

8. 31 days "Piraten" in Social Media

  • The pirates were reported to gain by the subjects NSA, Edward Snowden and the drone affair a strong growth of 55% in July.
  • They evaluate their own critical statements too positive, for example with "likes". This explains the mood on these topics of 14.2% positive to 24% negative posts.
  • Main topic for the Pirate Party was the result of a recent survey, which indicates that in the general election the pirates may come in on 7%.
  • In their own media, the asylum rejection of Edward Snowden and the comparison of NSA with the spying of GeStaPo and StaSi gained the biggest attention.
  • In the second place stands the link to with redirection to all sorts of useful security tools to protect one's own traffic.

9. 31 days "Wahlalternative 2013 (AfD)" in Social Media

  • In July the AfD has the strongest growth among all parties and is for now almost on par with the pirates.
  • The most celebrated event was of course the official recognition of the party.
  • In the general media, the issue of reintroducing the Deutschmark had the widest audience.
  • The age distribution is now also available. The data from July aligns with the June data. Only in the agegroup of 45-54 there was a slight increase.
  • With 8.3% positive to 32% negative opinions the mood is surprisingly positive towards NSA, Edward Snowden and drone affair and is again due to the praise of their own criticism.

    10. 31 days NPD in Social Media

    • Based on the YouTube post by "lefloid" our estimation shows that the NPD is a small side issue among the general public. In the before stated vlog, the NPD is only mentioned in passing, but the contribution was more widespread than the party's own Facebook page.
    • This is also confirmed by the satirical post of "Extra 3": satirical coverage is almost as influential as the NPDs own party page on Facebook.
    • The opinion of the NPD to NSA, Edward Snowden and drones affair corresponds to the general oppositional stance with 2.1% positive to 26.3% negative posts.
    • Of these three issues, almost only the NSA affair was discussed.
    • Unlike in the previous month, policy issues now also come to fruition in the NPD. They now also concern themselves with AfD, the CDU, CSU, the Greens and the Left.

    11. Government spokesmen in comparison: Steffen Seibert (government) and Thomas Oppermann (SPD)

    • Both parties' spokesmen are in extreme updraft, with Steffen Seibert being much more active than Thomas Oppermann.
    • Thomas Oppermann gaining more resonance, as the comparison of their own media activity (upper curve) with the total range (lower curve) shows.
    • The mood on the reports by Steffen Seibert is slightly better than on Thomas Oppermann's.
    • It is also interesting, that the strongest spreading of Steffen Seibert was achieved by satirical newsorgan "Der Postillion", whilest for Thommas Opperman it was the SPD's own channels.

    We hope you like this political market survey and are looking forward to your questions and suggestions. And of course we are very grateful if you recomend us to friends and colleges.

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